This study reveals that while more students eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) are expected to enter higher education, they will fall even further behind their peers without targeted intervention.  The findings paint a mixed picture of educational access in the capital. Ethnic diversity in higher education has reached hyper-diverse levels five years ahead of forecasts, whilst about 80% of young Londoners entering university come from minority ethnic backgrounds. However, disparities persist, with educational inequality set to increase across the capital. Key findings show:

The ethnic ‘hyper-diversity’ of young Londoners accessing HE, originally projected by 2030, is already discernible in 2025. As of 2023, the share of students from Black African, Black Caribbean, and Other Black backgrounds was 22% and for students from Bangladeshi, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani and Other Asian backgrounds, the figure is 26%. White students account for just over 20% of students entering HE from London by age 19.

The study projects that by 2035, low-income students from different London boroughs could face stark inequalities, with those from some areas being twice as likely to attend university as their counterparts in other parts of the city.

The overall numbers of students progressing will continue to grow we estimate an additional 27,000 young London-domiciled students entering HE each year by 2035. This presents an acute capacity challenge, especially in the context of the financial pressures currently facing the HE sector.