Rising teenage populations require local authorities and training providers to crunch the data so they can prepare for the consequences.

They say it’s good to talk, and that’s certainly the case when identifying the challenges facing FE leaders.

Here at Think we are privileged to sit down and hear the concerns of many college principals regarding post-16 provision sufficiency, which has risen the agenda in recent years.

Indeed, since last summer it’s often been the first topic principals discuss, with accounts of colleges closing applications for courses early and stories about hundreds of applicants being turned away.

Manchester was possibly the first area to sound the post-16 education alarm bell with the Department for Education in 2022. As the city’s renaissance continues apace it has seen its 16-18 population rise by a third in the last two decades.

We’ve undertaken post-16 sufficiency reviews for councils in large cities (including Manchester) and rural areas and continue to work with colleges, providers and local authorities on this issue. As FE Week recently highlighted, a shortage of FE places in Leeds has raised fears over the poorest young people being left behind.

Under the 1996 Education Act, local authorities have a statutory duty to ensure sufficient provision is available to meet the needs of young people over compulsory school age but under 19, and over 19 if they have an Education, Health and Care plan.

Now, published data – despite time lags in reporting – is telling a clearer story on sufficiency.